Assessment and forecast of the hydropower potential of the Vistula basin rivers (within Ukraine)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.34767/GAT.2024.12.03Keywords:
total hydropower potential (THP), rivers of the Vistula basin region, stochastic regularities, forecast, high-water phase of water, low-water phase of water, forecast THPAbstract
According to the proposed methodological approaches, the value of the total hydropower potential (THP) of the rivers in the Vistula basin region within Ukraine was established. It was found that the THP of the studied rivers is 56,548 kW, which is 1.2 % of the total hydropower potential of all rivers in Ukraine. The forecast of the water quality control system for the rivers of the Vistula basin region was carried out according to the established stochastic patterns of the multi-year variability of the river flow, with the allocation of water cycles, the components of which are high-water and low-water phases. The relationship between the average annual water flow over a multi-year period and the average annual water flow in the high-water and low-water phases was identified. The average ratio between the flow of river water in the high-water and low-water phases was about 1.45. THP is the calculated forecast, which corresponds to the forecast indicators of the high-water and low-water phases. During the multi-year phase, an average increase of the THP in the Vistula river basin area by 15.1 % is predicted. The total value of the water level in the low-water phase will decrease by 20.4 %. The obtained results regarding the assessment of the water level of the rivers of the Vistula basin area and their forecast changes in different water phases can be used in the design and placement of hydropower facilities, taking into account all the ecological and technological requirements of their construction.
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